Monday, April 25, 2005

Blood For Oil

The NYT excitedly posts:

Bush and Saudi Prince Discuss High Oil Prices in Ranch Meeting

The picture doesn't show a discussion, it shows two men having a happy hand in hand stroll. Oh, that will put Bin Laden's pants in a twist!


During the last election (sic) Bush talked about how easy it would be to get cheaper oil. "I will call my friends in Saudi Arabia and they will give us the oil," he assured his easily tricked supporters. The obvious question, why he didn't do it that very day, didn't occur to many supporters. Obviously, logic is not their strong suit.

So here comes the bride. Dressed to the nines, kissing up to Bush, thanking him, no doubt, for allowing the Saudis to totally escape the responsiblity for 9/11. Old foe, Saddam, innocent of all charges, taken down by Americans. Many of whom either died or was seriously wounded or mentally destablilized but these two buddies don't mention those details.

Saudi Arabia's plan, which it began discussing publicly weeks ago, calls for spending up to $50 billion to increase its maximum sustainable production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009, and to 15 million in the subsequent decade, from about 10.8 million barrels now. The Saudis are currently pumping about 9.5 million barrels a day.

I remember even eight months ago. During the Bush 9/11 festival in NYC, the Saudis said they would pump 11 million barrels of oil a day. And when they announced that, prices did drop $5 a barrel...for several weeks. When the pumping humping didn't happen, the price rose again. I even remember when it was 10 million barrels a day. Seems that it is dropping, not going up. This is a mystery...for gullible people.

Asked whether that plan would have any effect soon on gasoline prices in the United States, Stephen J. Hadley, Mr. Bush's national security adviser, told reporters, "It's hard to say."

Bush fooled his supporters last year. He hopes to continue fooling them. This is called "talking down the price" so people will imagine something magical will happen. China just did this to Japan, quite maliciously, too. It worked.

But this story won't fly. Too many supporters have been burned. They are asking questions. Like, "Can Saudi Arabia increase oil pumping?"

Some experts, including past and present officials of Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, have said the plan may be too optimistic because of geological complexities in the oil fields and challenges in finding enough technology and labor.

Short answer: probably not. Any new wells going in will simply replace ones that are depleting. And even if Saudi Arabia can increase pumping which is very unlikely, depletion in other places will negate the overall amount of oil being pumped. EVEN if this came out wine and roses, China will simply soak up any oil pumped lickety split. There is one way to put pressures on price: outlaw SUVs and trucks that aren't used for real work like my truck which is used only to haul things. Put an excess tax on all such vehicles and tax them hard until people conserve.

This will never happen so we just have to wait for the cruel effects of the Hubbert Oil Peak to take hold and ravage us all.

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